Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height     

Fernando J. Mndez  Melisa Menndez  Alberto Luceo  Raúl Medina  Nicholas E. Graham 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(1):131-138

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.  相似文献   

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Marcel Hürlimann  Dieter Rickenmann  Vicente Medina  Allen Bateman 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):152

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.  相似文献   

Application of FLATModel, a 2D finite volume code, to debris flows in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

Vicente Medina  Marcel Hürlimann  Allen Bateman 《Landslides》2008,5(1):127-142

FLATModel is a two-dimensional shallow-water approximation code with corrections and modifications that create a simulation tool adapted to debris-flows behaviour. FLATModel uses the finite volume method with the numerical implementation of the Godunov scheme and includes correction terms regarding the effect of flow over high slopes and curvature. Additionally, the stop-and-go phenomenon, the basal entrainment and a correction regarding the front inclination of the final deposit are incorporated into FLATModel. In addition, different flow resistance laws were integrated in the numerical code including Bingham, Herschel–Bulkley and Voellmy fluid model. Firstly, our numerical model was validated using analytical solutions of a dam-break scenario and published data on a laboratory experiment. Secondly, three real events, which occurred in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, were back-calculated. Although field observations of the three events are not very detailed, the back-analyses revealed interesting patterns on the flow dynamics, and the numerical results generally showed good agreement with field data. Comparing the different flow resistance laws, the Voellmy fluid model presents the best behaviour regarding both the flow behaviour and the deposit characteristics. Preliminary simulation runs incorporating the effect of basal entrainment offered satisfactory results, although the final volume is rather sensitive on the selected friction angle of channel-bed material. The outcomes regarding the correction of the calculated front inclination of the final deposit showed that this implementation strongly improves the simulation results and better represents steep fronts of final deposits.  相似文献   

Application of HF radar currents to oil spill modelling     

Abascal AJ  Castanedo S  Medina R  Losada IJ  Alvarez-Fanjul E 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(2):238-248

In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.  相似文献   

Sulfur isotopic study of sulfate in the aquifer of Costa de Hermosillo (Sonora,Mexico) in relation to upward intrusion of saline groundwater,irrigation pumping and land cultivation     

Anna Szynkiewicz  Miguel Rangel Medina  Magdalena Modelska  Rogelio Monreal  Lisa M. Pratt 《Applied Geochemistry》2008

  相似文献   

Towards an operational system for oil-spill forecast over Spanish waters: initial developments and implementation test     

Sotillo MG  Fanjul EA  Castanedo S  Abascal AJ  Menendez J  Emelianov M  Olivella R  García-Ladona E  Ruiz-Villarreal M  Conde J  Gómez M  Conde P  Gutierrez AD  Medina R 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(4):686-703

The ESEOO Project, launched after the Prestige crisis, has boosted operational oceanography capacities in Spain, creating new operational oceanographic services and increasing synergies between these new operational tools and already existing systems. In consequence, the present preparedness to face an oil-spill crisis is enhanced, significantly improving the operational response regarding ocean, meteorological and oil-spill monitoring and forecasting. A key aspect of this progress has been the agreement between the scientific community and the Spanish Search and Rescue Institution (SASEMAR), significantly favoured within the ESEOO framework. Important achievements of this collaboration are: (1) the design of protocols that at the crisis time provide operational state-of-the-art information, derived from both forecasting and observing systems; (2) the establishment, in case of oil-spill crisis, of a new specialized unit, named USyP, to monitor and forecast the marine oceanographic situation, providing the required met-ocean and oil-spill information for the crisis managers. The oil-spill crisis scenario simulated during the international search and rescue Exercise "Gijón-2006", organized by SASEMAR, represented an excellent opportunity to test the capabilities and the effectiveness of this USyP unit, as well as the protocols established to analyze and transfer information. The results presented in this work illustrate the effectiveness of the operational approach, and constitute an encouraging and improved base to face oil-spill crisis.  相似文献   

Deformability characteristics of brazilian laterites     

Jacques De Medina  Laura M. G. Motta  João D. G. Dos Santos 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(4):949-971

This paper summarizes the resilient and permanent deformation characteristics of laterite gravels, determined by cyclic loading in triaxial tests of compacted specimens. A study of laterite pavements was carried out on eight paved road sections in the state of Mato Grosso. Also reported is the influence of fine sand admixture, specimen size and soaking in two laterite samples from Roraima and Rondônia in the North of Brazil. The experimental relationships of resilient moduli against applied stresses are interpreted empirically for models what may be incorporated in a structural analysis of full depth of laterite pavement.  相似文献   

Acceleration response modification factors for nonstructural components attached to inelastic moment‐resisting frame structures     

Ragunath Sankaranarayanan  Ricardo A. Medina 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(14):2189-2210

A statistical analysis of the peak acceleration demands for nonstructural components (NSCs) supported on a variety of stiff and flexible inelastic regular moment‐resisting frame structures with periods from 0.3 to 3.0 s exposed to 40 far‐field ground motions is presented. Peak component acceleration (PCA) demands were quantified based on the floor response spectrum (FRS) method without considering dynamic interaction effects. This study evaluated the main factors that influence the amplification or decrease of FRS values caused by inelasticity in the primary structure in three distinct spectral regions namely long‐period, fundamental‐period, and short‐period region. The amplification or decrease of peak elastic acceleration demands depends on the location of the NSC in the supporting structure, periods of the component and building, damping ratio of the component, and level of inelasticity of the supporting structure. While FRS values at the initial modal periods of the supporting structure are reduced due to inelastic action in the primary structure, the region between the modal periods experiences an increase in PCA demands. A parameter denoted as acceleration response modification factor (R_acc) was proposed to quantify this reduction/increase in PCA demands. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Surface-water quality for the Salí River watershed in NW Argentina     

J. Fernández-Turiel  C. Pérez-Miranda  G. Almada  M. Medina  C. Riviere  M. Gordillo 《Environmental Geology》2003,43(8):941-949

Spatial and temporal variations of Na, Mg, Si, K, Ca, SO₄^2-, Cl^-, HCO₃^-, Ag, Al, As, Au, B, Ba, Be, Bi, Br, Ce, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, F, Fe, Ga, Ge, Gd, Hf, Hg, Ho, I, La, Li, Mn, Mo, Nb, Nd, Ni, P, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sb, Sm, Sn, Sr, Ta, Tb, Te, Th, Ti, Tl, U, V, W, Y, Yb, Zn, and Zr were monitored through 37 sampling stations to determine the main aspects influencing the surface-water quality in the Salí River watershed (Tucumán Province, NW Argentina). The influence of the regional geological setting on water chemistry allows to distinguish three sub-basins. The interaction with sedimentary rocks was found to be dominant in the northern and central-eastern sub-basin as well as in the southern sub-basin, whereas the metamorphic-granitic basement of the Pampean Ranges was noted in the central sub-basin. In addition, anthropogenic activities affect the spatial variation of K, P, Mn, Rb, and Pb as well as dissolved oxygen concentrations and Eh. Temporal water-quality variation is related to the spatial distribution of precipitation and to the seasonal character of the main local industries (sugar cane, alcohol, citrus), increasing P and K concentrations and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentration and Eh in winter. Cl^-, Na, SO₄^2-, Al, As, B, Fe, Mn, Se and U concentrations exceed the regulated drinking-water thresholds at several sampling stations.  相似文献   

Inverse problem in hydrogeology   总被引：14，自引：6，他引：8  

Jesús Carrera  Andrés Alcolea  Agustín Medina  Juan Hidalgo  Luit J. Slooten 《Hydrogeology Journal》2005,13(1):206-222

The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability), scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity, recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations) to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty, etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended that its use should become standard practice.

---

Resumen Se sintetiza el estado del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas. El énfasis se ubica en la caracterización de acuíferos, donde los modeladores tienen que enfrentar la incertidumbre del modelo conceptual (principalmente variabilidad temporal y espacial), dependencia de escala, muchos tipos de parámetros desconocidos (transmisividad, recarga, condiciones limitantes, etc), no linealidad, y frecuentemente baja sensibilidad de variables de estado (típicamente presiones y concentraciones) a las propiedades del acuífero. Debido a estas dificultades, no puede separarse la calibración de los procesos de modelado, como frecuentemente se hace en otros campos. En su lugar, debe de visualizarse como un paso en el proceso de entendimiento del comportamiento del acuífero. En realidad, se muestra que los métodos reales de estimación de parámetros no difieren uno del otro en lo esencial, aunque sí pueden diferir en los detalles computacionales. Se discute que existe amplio espacio para la mejora del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas: desarrollo de códigos amigables al usuario, acomodamiento de variabilidad a través de geoestadística, incorporación de información geológica y diferentes tipos de datos (temperatura, presencia y concentración de isótopos, edad, etc), explicación apropiada de incertidumbre, etc. A pesar de esto, aún con los códigos existentes, la calibración automática facilita enormemente la tarea de modelado. Por lo tanto, se sostiene que su uso debería de convertirse en práctica standard.

---

Résumé Létat du problème inverse des eaux souterraines est synthétisé. Laccent est placé sur la caractérisation de laquifère, où les modélisateurs doivent jouer avec lincertitude des modèles conceptuels (notamment la variabilité spatiale et temporelle), les facteurs déchelle, plusieurs inconnues sur différents paramètres (transmissivité, recharge, conditions aux limites, etc.), la non linéarité, et souvent la sensibilité de plusieurs variables détat (charges hydrauliques, concentrations) des propriétés de laquifère. A cause de ces difficultés, le calibrage ne peut être séparé du processus de modélisation, comme cest le cas dans dautres cas de figure. Par ailleurs, il peut être vu comme une des étapes dans le processus de détermination du comportement de laquifère. Il est montré que les méthodes dévaluation des paramètres actuels ne diffèrent pas si ce nest dans les détails des calculs informatiques. Il est montré quil existe une large panoplie de techniques d ‹inversion : codes de calcul utilisables par tout-un-chacun, accommodation de la variabilité via la géostatistique, incorporation dinformations géologiques et de différents types de données (température, occurrence, concentration en isotopes, âge, etc.), détermination de lincertitude. Vu ces développements, la calibration automatique facilite énormément la modélisation. Par ailleurs, il est souhaitable que son utilisation devienne une pratique standardisée.

  相似文献